A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
