Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
